The 2024 Indianapolis 500 will take place on Sunday at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, nicknamed "The Brickyard." The green flag drops at 12:45 p.m. ET for the 108th running of the race. Josef Newgarden is the defending champion and he'll look to become the first back-to-back Indy 500 champion since Helio Castroneves in 2001 and 2002 and the first American since Al Unser in 1970 and 1971. Newgarden is listed at +500 in the 2024 Indianapolis 500 odds while Scott McLaughlin is the +450 favorite after winning the pole on Saturday. NASCAR star Kyle Larson is listed at +650 in the latest Indy 500 odds along with 2018 Indianapolis 500 winner Will Power.

Our proven projection model has simulated the race 10,000 times and came up with a surprising leaderboard. Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary auto racing prediction computer model takes into account a slew of factors including track history and recent results.

McClure's model was red-hot during the 2023 NASCAR season, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas. 

It also called its first victory of the 2024 season with Larson winning again in Las Vegas for a 21-5 payout then predicted a Denny Hamlin's wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. It impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021 too and called all 19 of Max Verstappen's wins in Formula 1 last season. Anyone who followed its lead on those racing picks saw HUGE returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on the 2024 Indy 500 and released its projections. 

The model knows that the 2.5-mile rectangular oval at Indianapolis Motor Speedway is one of the most iconic tracks in the history of motorsports. The Brickyard opened in 1909 and the first Indianapolis 500 was held in 1911, with American Ray Harroun taking the checkered flag. Americans have gone on to win 77 times with 55 different drivers earning a spot in the history books. The United Kingdom and Brazil are tied for second with eight wins each, with five drivers from the UK accomplishing the feat and four drivers from Brazil going to victory lane.

For the 2024 Indianapolis 500, we can tell you the model is high on Kyle Kirkwood, even though he's a +2500 long shot in the latest 2023 Indianapolis 500 odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a HUGE payday. And a massive shocker: Scott McLauglin, the top Vegas favorite at +450, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five! There are far better values in the 2024 Indy 500 starting grid.

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2024 Indianapolis 500 odds of longer than +1500 to make a serious run at the checkered flag! Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who it is before locking in any IndyCar picks.

So who wins the 2024 Indy 500? And which long shots are a MUST-BACK? ... Join SportsLine right now to see the full projected Indianapolis 500 leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 18 NASCAR winners since 2021 and called every Verstappen win in F1 in 2023!